A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence
Identifieur interne : 000079 ( France/Analysis ); précédent : 000078; suivant : 000080A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence
Auteurs : Pierre Nouvellet [Royaume-Uni] ; Anne Cori [Royaume-Uni] ; Tini Garske [Royaume-Uni] ; Isobel M. Blake [Royaume-Uni] ; Ilaria Dorigatti [Royaume-Uni] ; Wes Hinsley [Royaume-Uni] ; Thibaut Jombart [Royaume-Uni] ; Harriet L. Mills [Royaume-Uni] ; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani [Royaume-Uni] ; Maria D. Van Kerkhove [Royaume-Uni, France] ; Christophe Fraser [Royaume-Uni] ; Christl A. Donnelly [Royaume-Uni] ; Neil M. Ferguson [Royaume-Uni] ; Steven Riley [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Epidemics [ 1755-4365 ] ; 2018.
Abstract
Our simple approach relies on very few parameters and minimal assumptions Subjective choice of best training period improved forecasts Despites its simplicity, our model forecasted well under a range scenarios. This approach can be a natural 'null model' for comparison with methods.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.012
PubMed: 28351674
PubMed Central: 5871640
Affiliations:
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PMC:5871640Le document en format XML
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last="Nouvellet">Pierre Nouvellet</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, 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Van Kerkhove</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">Center for Global Health, Institute Pasteur, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Global Health, Institute Pasteur, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, Christophe" sort="Fraser, Christophe" uniqKey="Fraser C" first="Christophe" last="Fraser">Christophe Fraser</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Christl A" sort="Donnelly, Christl A" uniqKey="Donnelly C" first="Christl A." last="Donnelly">Christl A. Donnelly</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M." last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Epidemics</title><idno type="ISSN">1755-4365</idno><idno type="eISSN">1878-0067</idno><imprint><date when="2018">2018</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">Our simple approach relies on very few parameters and minimal assumptions</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">Subjective choice of best training period improved forecasts</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">Despites its simplicity, our model forecasted well under a range scenarios.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label><p id="par0020">This approach can be a natural 'null model' for comparison with methods.</p></list-item></list></p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S. Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Temime, L" uniqKey="Temime L">L. Temime</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guillemot, D" uniqKey="Guillemot D">D. Guillemot</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chretien, J P" uniqKey="Chretien J">J.-P. Chretien</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S. Riley</name></author><author><name sortKey="George, D B" uniqKey="George D">D.B. George</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cori, A" uniqKey="Cori A">A. Cori</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, N M" uniqKey="Ferguson N">N.M. Ferguson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S. Cauchemez</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cori, A" uniqKey="Cori A">A. Cori</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, C A" uniqKey="Donnelly C">C.A. Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dorigatti, I" uniqKey="Dorigatti I">I. Dorigatti</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. Fraser</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Garske, T" uniqKey="Garske T">T. Garske</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cori, A" uniqKey="Cori A">A. Cori</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ariyarajah, A" uniqKey="Ariyarajah A">A. Ariyarajah</name></author><author><name sortKey="Blake, I M" uniqKey="Blake I">I.M. Blake</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dorigatti, I" uniqKey="Dorigatti I">I. Dorigatti</name></author><author><name sortKey="Eckmanns, T" uniqKey="Eckmanns T">T. Eckmanns</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hinsley, W" uniqKey="Hinsley W">W. Hinsley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jombart, T" uniqKey="Jombart T">T. Jombart</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mills, H L" uniqKey="Mills H">H.L. Mills</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nedjati Gilani, G" uniqKey="Nedjati Gilani G">G. Nedjati-Gilani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Newton, E" uniqKey="Newton E">E. Newton</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nouvellet, P" uniqKey="Nouvellet P">P. Nouvellet</name></author><author><name sortKey="Perkins, D" uniqKey="Perkins D">D. Perkins</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S. Riley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Schumacher, D" uniqKey="Schumacher D">D. Schumacher</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shah, A" uniqKey="Shah A">A. Shah</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, M D" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M">M.D. Van Kerkhove</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dye, C" uniqKey="Dye C">C. 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Rossi</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="International Ebola Response Team" uniqKey="International Ebola Response Team">International Ebola Response Team</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Meltzer, M I" uniqKey="Meltzer M">M.I. Meltzer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Atkins, C Y" uniqKey="Atkins C">C.Y. Atkins</name></author><author><name sortKey="Santibanez, S" uniqKey="Santibanez S">S. Santibanez</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Merler, S" uniqKey="Merler S">S. Merler</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ajelli, M" uniqKey="Ajelli M">M. Ajelli</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fumanelli, L" uniqKey="Fumanelli L">L. Fumanelli</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nouvellet, P" uniqKey="Nouvellet P">P. Nouvellet</name></author><author><name sortKey="Garske, T" uniqKey="Garske T">T. Garske</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mills, H L" uniqKey="Mills H">H.L. Mills</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nsoesie, E O" uniqKey="Nsoesie E">E.O. Nsoesie</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brownstein, J S" uniqKey="Brownstein J">J.S. Brownstein</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ramakrishnan, N" uniqKey="Ramakrishnan N">N. Ramakrishnan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Marathe, M V" uniqKey="Marathe M">M.V. Marathe</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="O Eill, P D" uniqKey="O Eill P">P.D. O’Neill</name></author><author><name sortKey="Roberts, G O" uniqKey="Roberts G">G.O. Roberts</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Roebber, P J" uniqKey="Roebber P">P.J. Roebber</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bosart, L F" uniqKey="Bosart L">L.F. Bosart</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, M D" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M">M.D. Van Kerkhove</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bento, A I" uniqKey="Bento A">A.I. Bento</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mills, H L" uniqKey="Mills H">H.L. Mills</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, N M" uniqKey="Ferguson N">N.M. Ferguson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, C A" uniqKey="Donnelly C">C.A. Donnelly</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C. Viboud</name></author><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L. Simonsen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Who Ebola Response Team" uniqKey="Who Ebola Response Team">WHO Ebola Response Team</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Who Ebola Response Team" uniqKey="Who Ebola Response Team">WHO Ebola Response Team</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Who Ebola Response Team" uniqKey="Who Ebola Response Team">WHO Ebola Response Team</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Who Ebola Response Team" uniqKey="Who Ebola Response Team">WHO Ebola Response Team</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J. Wallinga</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M. Lipsitch</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Grand Londres</li><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Londres</li><li>Paris</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Nouvellet, Pierre" sort="Nouvellet, Pierre" uniqKey="Nouvellet P" first="Pierre" last="Nouvellet">Pierre Nouvellet</name></region><name sortKey="Blake, Isobel M" sort="Blake, Isobel M" uniqKey="Blake I" first="Isobel M." last="Blake">Isobel M. Blake</name><name sortKey="Cori, Anne" sort="Cori, Anne" uniqKey="Cori A" first="Anne" last="Cori">Anne Cori</name><name sortKey="Donnelly, Christl A" sort="Donnelly, Christl A" uniqKey="Donnelly C" first="Christl A." last="Donnelly">Christl A. Donnelly</name><name sortKey="Donnelly, Christl A" sort="Donnelly, Christl A" uniqKey="Donnelly C" first="Christl A." last="Donnelly">Christl A. Donnelly</name><name sortKey="Dorigatti, Ilaria" sort="Dorigatti, Ilaria" uniqKey="Dorigatti I" first="Ilaria" last="Dorigatti">Ilaria Dorigatti</name><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M." last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M." last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name><name sortKey="Fraser, Christophe" sort="Fraser, Christophe" uniqKey="Fraser C" first="Christophe" last="Fraser">Christophe Fraser</name><name sortKey="Fraser, Christophe" sort="Fraser, Christophe" uniqKey="Fraser C" first="Christophe" last="Fraser">Christophe Fraser</name><name sortKey="Garske, Tini" sort="Garske, Tini" uniqKey="Garske T" first="Tini" last="Garske">Tini Garske</name><name sortKey="Hinsley, Wes" sort="Hinsley, Wes" uniqKey="Hinsley W" first="Wes" last="Hinsley">Wes Hinsley</name><name sortKey="Jombart, Thibaut" sort="Jombart, Thibaut" uniqKey="Jombart T" first="Thibaut" last="Jombart">Thibaut Jombart</name><name sortKey="Jombart, Thibaut" sort="Jombart, Thibaut" uniqKey="Jombart T" first="Thibaut" last="Jombart">Thibaut Jombart</name><name sortKey="Mills, Harriet L" sort="Mills, Harriet L" uniqKey="Mills H" first="Harriet L." last="Mills">Harriet L. Mills</name><name sortKey="Nedjati Gilani, Gemma" sort="Nedjati Gilani, Gemma" uniqKey="Nedjati Gilani G" first="Gemma" last="Nedjati-Gilani">Gemma Nedjati-Gilani</name><name sortKey="Nouvellet, Pierre" sort="Nouvellet, Pierre" uniqKey="Nouvellet P" first="Pierre" last="Nouvellet">Pierre Nouvellet</name><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, Maria D" sort="Van Kerkhove, Maria D" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M" first="Maria D." last="Van Kerkhove">Maria D. Van Kerkhove</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, Maria D" sort="Van Kerkhove, Maria D" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M" first="Maria D." last="Van Kerkhove">Maria D. Van Kerkhove</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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